War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Polling materials in Burma
The country's military is conducting a phased vote over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Sean Hancock
Sean Hancock

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and statistical modeling.